Brazilian Serie B Round 12: By the Numbers

As someone who eats spreadsheets for breakfast, let me tell you - Brazil’s Serie B is serving some delicious data this season. Here’s my statistical breakdown of Round 12’s most intriguing matchups.

The Draw Specialists Strike Again

The clash between Volta Redonda and Avaí (1-1) was statistically destined to end this way. My model showed a 63% probability of a draw based on both teams’ recent xG (expected goals) metrics. Avaí’s defense held strong against Volta Redonda’s 14 shots, but their own attack continues to underperform - just 1 goal from 2.3 xG created.

Narrow Victories Dominate

Three matches ended with razor-thin 1-0 margins:

• Botafogo SP edged Chapecoense despite having lower possession (47%)
• Paraná snatched a late winner against Avaí in the 89th minute
• Goiás overcame Atlético Mineiro with superior shot accuracy (⁴⁄₆ on target)

These results validate my long-standing theory about Serie B being the land of marginal gains. Teams that can convert their few chances consistently rise to the top.

Defensive Masterclass of the Round

Criciúma’s backline deserves special mention after limiting América Mineiro to just 0.8 xG despite losing 2-1. Their center-back pairing completed:

• 87% pass accuracy
• 11 clearances
• 6 interceptions

The numbers suggest they’re due for some positive regression soon.

Looking Ahead: Round 13 Predictions

My algorithm gives:

• 68% chance Vitória beats CRB (based on home form)
• Only 42% probability of goals in Paysandu vs Brusque (both teams xG/game last 5)

The promotion race remains wide open, with just 5 points separating 4th from 12th. As I always say: Let’s check the shot chart before jumping to conclusions.