Brazilian Serie B Round 12: The Data Tells the Story

As someone who spends more time crunching football stats than sleeping (my Python scripts don’t write themselves), I couldn’t resist diving into the latest drama from Brazil’s Serie B. Here’s what the numbers reveal about Round 12.

The Unpredictable Midtable Tango

The 1-1 draw between Volta Redonda and Avai was a classic case of xG (expected goals) not telling the full story. Avai dominated possession (58%) but only managed 1.08 xG – proof that ball retention doesn’t always equal effectiveness. Meanwhile, Volta Redonda’s compact 4-4-2 frustrated their opponents all night.

Late Drama in Goiania

Botafogo-SP’s narrow 1-0 win over Chapecoense showcased why clean sheets matter more than flashy attacks. Their goalkeeper made 5 crucial saves (3 from inside the box), while Chapecoense’s wasteful finishing cost them dearly. Sometimes football really is that simple.

The Relegation Dogfight Heats Up

Amazonas FC’s 2-1 comeback against Vila Nova wasn’t just exciting – it was statistically significant. Their second half xG of 1.7 versus Vila Nova’s 0.3 shows how momentum shifts can define matches. For teams battling relegation, these are the games that make or break seasons.

Key Stat: 6 of this round’s 11 completed matches ended as draws – the highest percentage (54.5%) in any round this season. Is parity good for competition or a sign of mediocre quality? Discuss.

What’s Next?

With Atletico-GO climbing after back-to-back wins and traditional clubs like Criciuma struggling for consistency, the promotion race remains wide open. My predictive model gives Cruzeiro a 68% chance of automatic promotion… but as we saw this round, Brazilian football loves proving algorithms wrong.