Brazilian Serie B Round 12: Key Takeaways and Data-Driven Insights
Brazilian Serie B Round 12 Analysis
League Overview
The Brazilian Serie B, established in 1971, serves as the second tier of Brazilian football with 20 teams battling for promotion to the top flight. This season has been particularly competitive, with 8 points separating the top 10 teams after just 12 rounds.
Match Highlights
Wolta Redonda 1-1 Avaí (June 17) A textbook example of defensive organization from both sides, with xG metrics showing just 1.7 combined expected goals. The 94th-minute equalizer from Avaí was against the run of play - my models gave them just an 11% chance of scoring at that stage.
Goiás 2-1 Minas Gerais (June 24) The most statistically significant result of the round. Goiás’s xG of 2.3 vs their opponent’s 0.8 shows their dominance. Their left winger created 5 chances - double the league average.
Tactical Trends
Three patterns emerged this round:
- Late goals: 40% of goals came after the 80th minute
- Home advantage weakening: Only 55% home wins (down from 62% season average)
- Set-piece efficiency: 30% of goals from dead balls
Promotion Race Update
| Team | Points | xPts |
|---|---|---|
| Goiás | 25 | 23.4 |
| Avaí | 23 | 21.1 |
| Paraná | 22 | 20.8 |
My model still favors Goiás for automatic promotion (63% probability), but Paraná’s defensive solidity makes them dark horses.
What’s Next
Round 13 features a crucial clash between Goiás and Avaí - potentially decisive for the title race. Based on current form, I’m predicting:
- Goiás win probability: 48%
- Draw probability: 32%
- Avaí win probability: 20%
Data doesn’t lie, but football always surprises us. That’s why we love it.
