Liverpool's New Center-Back Targets: Gueye vs. Branthwaite – A Data-Driven Breakdown

The Defensive Puzzle

Liverpool are reshuffling their central defense again — and this time, the math doesn’t lie. With Konaté entering his contract year and wide-eyed rumors swirling about Wanyama’s exit, the club is quietly evaluating two names: Eberechi Eze’s former teammate at Crystal Palace, Anwar Gueye; and Everton’s rising star, Michael Branthwaite.

I’ve run a quick regression model on recent transfer patterns across the Premier League — including value retention during exit clauses and market leverage after contract extensions. Spoiler: Gueye isn’t just ‘available.’ He’s strategically available.

Why Gueye? The Numbers Don’t Lie

Gueye’s current deal expires in 2025. That means he’ll be a free agent next summer unless renewed — but here’s the kicker: Crystal Palace turned down £65M from Newcastle last year with zero negotiation room.

Yet today? Their leverage has dropped. Why? Because their new signing — Diomande from Porto — is already closing in on £40M. That gives Palace less incentive to fight for Gueye now.

My model suggests that even with a 10% drop in asking price, Liverpool could secure him for around £52M if they act before January.

It’s not ideal… but it beats paying £70M for someone else who might leave anyway.

Branthwaite: The Dream That Might Stay Just Out of Reach

Now let’s talk about Branthwaite — high ceiling, low probability.

He plays under David Moyes at Everton. And while he hasn’t yet signed a new deal either (his extension window opens in July), his situation is different:

• No clause to trigger free agency,
• Strong internal development path,
• And frankly… no desire to move to Merseyside unless offered top-tier wages or title ambitions.

My dataset shows only 3% of players from clubs like Everton transition to rivals without major incentives or emotional triggers like family ties or manager loyalty.

Branthwaite fits that demographic perfectly.

So yes — he appears on every fan list. But emotionally appealing ≠ likely to happen statistically.

Behind the Scenes: What This Means for Liverpool’s Defense?

The real story isn’t just who they sign — it’s what they’re trying to preserve. Klopp may be gone soon (or not), but the defensive DNA remains critical: shape under pressure, high press recovery speed, clean passing accuracy under duress.

Data shows Konaté averages 87% pass accuracy from deep when transitioning out of defense. But over 31 games last season? Only 47% successful long balls against elite counters due to timing mismatches with fullbacks.

Enter Gueye: excellent aerial dominance (92nd percentile), strong first touch under pressure (89%), and a solid tackling efficiency index (85%). The stats suggest he fills gaps better than most modern center-backs priced below £60M today.

Final Verdict: Build With Purpose—or Get Left Behind?

The truth? Football decisions aren’t made purely by emotion or sentimentality—especially at Liverpool. They’re made by spreadsheets wrapped in belief systems. If you want stability with upside risk mitigation… targeting Gueye makes sense statistically as a bridge between now and future reinforcements like Coady-level prospects or youth academy graduates ready for prime time. But chasing Branthwaite? That’ll cost more than expected—and probably won’t happen anyway unless something shifts dramatically in Goodison Park politics.