Porto's Mid-Season Collapse: Why Martin Anselmi's Data-Driven Tactics Failed Under Pressure

The Numbers Don’t Lie

I’ve spent a decade building player performance algorithms for top European clubs—Porto’s recent collapse wasn’t drama. It was arithmetic.

Anselmi took over in January 2025 with a tactical blueprint rooted in possession metrics and xG models. But by July, the data screamed: 21 matches, 10 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses. Only five goals scored in the group stage. That’s not bad coaching—that’s broken inputs.

When Models Outgrow Manpower

His system assumed high control over squad dynamics but ignored variance. Opta’s pass completion rates showed his midfield was structurally rigid; StatSports’ pressing triggers weren’t calibrated for Porto’s physical pace.

The stats didn’t lie—he just stopped listening to them.

The Quiet Exit of a Data-Driven Coach

This isn’t about personality. It’s about mismatched KPIs. He optimized for past results while ignoring context: Europa’s competitive density demands more than intuition.

We’ve all seen this before—in Serie A, La Liga, even the Champions League. Same algorithm. Different club.

The real story? The data knew before he did.