ব্রাজিলিয়ান সিরি বি সপ্তাহ ১২

সিরি বি সপ্তাহ ১২: পরিসংখ্যানের সঙ্গে কৌশল

আমি 30+ম্যাচের Live Data-এর Analyze-এ 3দিনকালই spent. Série B-এ post-international break-এরপরই This week-টা statistically unpredictable।

xG, clean sheet, late goal—সবই Up। Who won? Not the real question. How they won? That’s the story.

Expected Goals vs Reality

Waltretonda vs Avaí (1–1): Avaí-এ xG = 1.95, Waltretonda = 0.87—but only one goal! Finishing inefficiency + goalkeeping brilliance.

Goiás vs Criciúma (1–0): Low-block switch in second half → xG against dropped from 1.34 to 0.48.

Shutouts: five of six were by teams with shots on target per game.

Underdogs & Tactical Shifts

Amazon FC: Rafael Vaz-এর hybrid system → transition possession ↑63% (from 48%), counter-goal conversion rate: ~50% (⁵⁄₁₁).

Curitiba: Possession dominance but no creation—proof that control ≠ goals.

Forecasting Ahead

Vila Nova vs Coritiba: Model predicts narrow win for Coritiba if left wing stays fit. Injuries now a major factor—especially at clubs without strong youth academies or depth. Passion exists—but it doesn’t show in xG charts. Effective tactics do.