I grew up in Islington, where my Jamaican-British parents taught me that stats aren’t luck—they’re the quiet math behind every missed bet. In this piece, I pull apart three flawed match predictions from Opta and FBref data, revealing why 'certainty' in sports betting is a myth. Not bad luck. Bad modeling. Let me show you what happens when algorithms ignore context—and why your next loss isn't about chance, but about missing variables.